The war involving the USA, Israel, and Iran has disrupted global fertiliser supplies, with major volumes stuck in the Persian Gulf. About a quarter of global fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, now nearly paralysed. Qatar’s Qafco alone accounts for 14% of global supply, making the disruption especially severe.
Rising prices and other risks for Kazakhstan
Fertiliser prices have already risen by 30–40%, and even small increases push food prices higher. If the conflict continues, millions more people—especially in import-dependent regions—could face acute hunger due to rising food costs.
Kazakhstan is particularly vulnerable due to long-term soil depletion and historically low fertiliser use. Despite government subsidies increasing to cover up to 60% of costs, current usage (1.8 million tonnes) still falls far short of the 3.2 million tonnes needed.
For Kazakhstan, such growth may turn out to be critical: it could lead to the failure of another agro-industrial complex development programme, the "Concept for the Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2021-2030".
Government response and local supply
For now, the Ministry of Agriculture guarantees that this year the village will be provided with its own fertilisers.
Kazakhstan producers promise that this year they will fulfil their obligations at the old prices.
Authorities plan to prioritise domestic supply, potentially restricting exports if shortages occur. Local producers like KazAzot and Kazphosphate are maintaining supply and stable prices for now, aiming to support farmers during the critical sowing season.
Opportunities for Dutch–Kazakh cooperation
This situation creates a clear opportunity for stronger cooperation between the Netherlands and Kazakhstan:
- Agricultural technology transfer: The Netherlands is a global leader in efficient farming and precision agriculture. Sharing expertise can help Kazakhstan use fertilisers more effectively and reduce waste.
- Sustainable soil management: Dutch knowledge in soil restoration and nutrient management can help rebuild Kazakhstan’s declining land fertility.
- Fertiliser innovation: Collaboration on organic fertilisers, biofertilisers, and circular agriculture could reduce dependence on volatile global markets.
- Greenhouse and water-efficient farming: Dutch greenhouse systems and water-saving techniques can improve yields even with limited fertiliser input.
- Joint research and investment: Partnerships between universities, agribusinesses, and governments can accelerate innovation and long-term resilience.
Conclusion
The fertiliser crisis highlights how geopolitical conflicts can quickly disrupt global food systems. Rising prices and supply shortages threaten agricultural productivity, especially in countries like Kazakhstan that already face soil degradation and dependence on fertiliser imports. While Kazakhstan is stabilising domestic supply through subsidies and local production, it still faces a significant gap between current use and actual needs.
The crisis is not only a risk but also a catalyst: by combining Kazakhstan’s agricultural potential with Dutch innovation and efficiency, both countries can strengthen food security, reduce vulnerability to global shocks, and build a more sustainable agricultural future.