UKRAINE Building Climate Resilience in Agriculture and Forestry

This 2021 World Bank study is the first detailed assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Ukraine with a focus on agriculture, a key driver of the economy and jobs. Improvements in climate modeling and increased confidence in climate projections have opened the door to a better understanding of how climate change could impact Ukraine’s economy and what actions could offset potential costs or tap into new opportunities.

Ukrainian forest
Beeld: ©#UAgroNL

About the Study

Supporting Ukraine in Planning for the Future

The study fills an important information gap by pro viding over two terabytes of highly granular data on a range of climate indicators for Ukraine using the lat est available global and regional climate models. The analysis provides detailed climate projections for over 7,400 geographic points across the country, estimates the impact on key crops and forest timber species, and provides insights into how these changes would be experienced in different oblasts in the country. The huge trove of data generated for this study is equivalent to the amount of information contained in two large libraries full of books, (Indiana University Information Systems Knowledge Base and is now housed at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute in Kyiv. Ukrainian scientific institutions can continue to up date the data and are well-positioned to engage in continuous analysis. This data will also help Ukraine participate in and take advantage of the EU RO-CORDEX experiment and develop highly disaggregated climate projections that could be used to estimate climate risks in different sectors of the national economy and also at the sub-national level. The study looks at changes expected through the 21st century with climate analysis mainly focused on two scenarios:

• “Some mitigation measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions” — RCP 4.5 (global 2.4°C warm ing limit by 2100)

• “Business as usual” (no mitigation measures) — RCP 8.5 (global 4.3°C warming limit by 2100).

• This report is supported by four Background Technical Reports exploring Climate Projections, Impact on Agriculture, Impact on Forests, and a Distributional Analysis.

Climate change is the defining factor of global development in the 21st century.

Beeld: ©UAgroNL

Ukraine has recognized the importance of Climate Change to achieving its development goals and taking steps toward a green transition. The country recently affirmed its commitment to the European Green Deal and updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2021. A Presidential Decree of March 23, 2021, further demonstrates that eco logical security and climate change are high on the Government’s agenda.

Content of the report

How will Ukraine’s climate change during the 21st century?

How will climate change impact agriculture in Ukraine?

How will climate change impact forests?

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Inequality

A Way Forward for Ukraine

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