Impact of Drought in Kenya and Tanzania
Effectively all annual precipitation in the region concentrates itself in two rain seasons, the long rains from April to June and the short rains around October to December. The rains are needed to refill surface water basins, to facilitate agriculture, and to allow pastureland to recover from the dry season. If the rain fails, these environmental functions fail; which is hard to overcome for the low economical resilient countries in the Horn of Africa.
Impact of the drought
Kenya
In Kenya an estimation of 2.7 million people will require relief assistance; the areas most affected are the north-west and the areas along the coast. Three impacts will be highlighted. The biggest impact of the drought is on the pasture lands, where overgrazing is currently taking place. Trough lacking rains the grass on pasture has not been able to recover which leads to food shortages for the cattle, resulting in starving populations. Another threat can be the complete loss of vegetation on pasturelands, possibly leading to the self-enforcing phenomenon of desertification. The second impact of the drought results from the depleting surface water basins, which leads to shortages in drinking water everywhere, but mostly in rural areas where people now have to travel up to 15 km to access water. Furthermore the price of drinking water has risen five to tenfold. The third highlighted threat is in the decreased or failing crop production, which will lead to food shortages when food stocks are depleted.
Tanzania
Tanzania suffers from rainfall percentages of ±50% of the normal amount of rains in the centre and south of the country to less than 30% of the normal amount of rains in the north, leading to overall droughts. In agriculture this means that the maize crop of the harvest early 2017 will most likely not reach demand trough crop failure. It also means that the next season, sowed early 2017 will not meet conditions in which the seeds can germinate, leading to an unfavourable harvest in august, regardless of the long rain season. There is said to be a good food reserve in place through the surplus of the 2015/2016 cropping season, but at the same time pockets of food deficits in 53 districts have been reported. Tanzania usually exports maize to several countries in the region (amongst others Kenya and Somalia). With the coming shortages for own use this export might be stopped, leaving the importing countries with a void next to their own failing cropping seasons.
Government response
Kenya
The management of the drought in Kenya is under the Devolution and Planning ministry. The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) is mandated to implement policies and programs and they take an overall coordinating role. They formed an intergovernmental and inter agency drought response committee comprising of; the principal secretary of agriculture (chair), the NDMA (secretary), Kenyan line departments, UN agencies, INGO’s, and representatives of the county governments. A nine-month multi-sectoral response plan has been issued (Nov. 2016 – July 2017). In the first phase the National Treasury allocated USD 54 million to critical sectors for drought mitigation inventions. In the second phase, starting February there will be USD 55 million available for relief food assistance. On county level detailed response plans are composed with central guidance of the WFP. Examples of interventions are promoting water harvesting techniques, water trucking with additional storage facilities and the collective buying of livestock for slaughter.
Tanzania
The National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) stocked part of the cereal surplus of the cropping season 2015/2016 and is planning to utilize the stocks held in the zonal offices for intervention this drought spell (the stocks are very low though). A food and nutrition assessment in order to identify the number and profile of the households vulnerable to food insecurity is being conducted. It is expected to show a declining food security for poor households due to higher prices of staple foods on the market. In the end the Tanzanian government will most probably lower or stop the export of food (mainly maize) to other countries due to own deficits. This will lead to further shortages in the receiving countries.
For more information or questions send an email to nai-lnv@minbuza.nl