Escalating geopolitical tensions, volatile trade policies, slower economic growth and a surge in extreme weather events leave international agricultural trade under pressure. The digital and intelligent economy increasingly reshapes global agricultural production, distribution, and trade. How can these technologies improve agriculture’s resilience advancing food security for all?
2026 has seen a dampening demand for international trade. In particular demand for traditional industries and bulk commodities weakened. According to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects, global trade growth is projected to slow from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026.
Global agricultural value chains under pressure
A recent report of the Agricultural Trade Early Warning and Remedy Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) of China analyses current developments. It identifies geopolitical tensions and shifting tariff policies as major drivers in reshaping global agricultural trade. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven up international energy and fertilizer prices, adding to the cost of agricultural production, transport and trade. Disruptions to the Black Sea grain corridor have likewise unsettled global supply chains for major cereals, including wheat and maize.
In addition, growing use of unilateral measures and repeated swings in tariff policies have made long-term investment decisions and the conclusion of trade contracts considerably more difficult, compelling trading partners to reassess their import and export markets and reconfigure established trade patterns.
Climate change induced effects also play an increasing role. An exceptionally strong El Nino affects the global supply outlook for major agricultural commodities from relative abundance towards tighter conditions.
To alleviate these pressures on global agriculture value chains, digital and intelligent technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), and blockchain rise to prominence. These technologies contribute to resilient agriculture value chains advancing food security for all.
Digital and intelligent technologies transform agriculture value chains
In the intelligent digital economy data serves as a core factor of production. Digital technologies increasingly transform every stage of production, trade and consumption.
First, in terms of agricultural production, competitiveness of traditional agriculture mainly depends on land, labor, climate, and physical infrastructure. In contrast, intelligent agriculture relies on data, technology, network connectivity, algorithms, and the ability to coordinate complex systems. This transforms agriculture towards precision agriculture and high-tech, AI-enabled farming. Technologies such as satellite remote sensing, drones, IoT sensors, GPS-enabled agricultural machinery and AI-based crop yield estimation are also being adopted in agricultural production.
Second, intelligent digital technologies increase efficiency and connectivity in agricultural value chains. Digital platforms directly connect value chain participants, making the chain shorter and more transparent. In addition, digital systems provide real-time information, including inventory levels, prices, transportation, warehousing capacity, consumer demand, and international orders. AI analyzes this information and optimizes transportation and warehousing, thereby reducing transaction costs, strengthening supply-chain resilience, and minimizing food loss.
The combination of Internet of Things (IoT) and blockchain enables full-chain traceability of exported agricultural products. While these applications enhance trust and regulatory compliance, it may also give rise to the possibility of new forms of digital non-tariff barriers in the future.
Beeld: Luca Locatelli, NL Branding Toolkit
Using drones in potato farming in the Netherlands
Third, global agricultural trade is becoming increasingly dependent on information. AI may gradually increase predictability of global agricultural markets. However, this also raises an important issue: more complete information does not necessarily mean greater price stability. If all market participants use similar algorithms and respond to the same information simultaneously, markets may instead react quicker and sharper, increasing volatility.
At the same time, the global food security landscape changes. Traditionally, global food security has depended largely on access to fertile land, abundant water resources, suitable climates, and sound agricultural infrastructure. The intelligent digital economy adds new dimensions: the availability of logistics, finance and a robust digital infrastructure and the capacity to work with agricultural technology, AI and data driven appliances.
As a result, competition in agricultural trade is shifting from competing primarily on land and labor costs towards competition in areas such as data, standards, and traceability capabilities. Countries with advanced agricultural AI, remote-sensing, and agricultural machinery technologies can not only export agricultural products, but also export complete intelligent digital agricultural solutions to other countries, creating a new form of technology-based export capability.
Smart agriculture experience from the Netherlands
The Netherlands has limited land resources and relatively insufficient sunlight. As a result, developments in agriculture moved towards controlled-environment smart agriculture, precision agriculture, digitalization, and collaboration across the entire value chain at a very early stage.
Erik Smidt, Counsellor for Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature at the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to China explains: “For the Netherlands, innovation is both a tradition and a lifeline, relying on collaboration between government, research institutions, businesses, and farmers to drive innovation. This collaboration is framed as the Dutch Diamond. Wageningen University & Research serves as a Dutch Diamond example. It is a major hub for innovation and research, working closely with other research institutions, companies, family farms, and cooperatives. Government policies and tax incentives further encourage innovation.”
Glass greenhouses precision agriculture
An example of collaboration in the Netherlands is the world-famous Dutch smart glass greenhouse, one of the most iconic technologies in Dutch precision agriculture. The Netherlands has approximately one-quarter of the world’s modern glass greenhouses. These greenhouses are equipped with large numbers of sensors that continuously collect and analyze various types of data, providing farmers with comprehensive cultivation plans. They can also automatically apply fertilizers and regulate the indoor climate.
In recent years, with the development of AI technology, Wageningen University & Research Center has developed a digital twin project. The project uses cameras to automatically collect information about the growth of cucumber plants and simulates how virtual greenhouses and virtual crops respond to different control measures. Real-time sensor data is then used to continuously update the model, while AI learns from large numbers of simulations about the possible outcomes of different control strategies.
The ultimate goal of this research is no longer simply to have “AI tell farmers what they should do,” but rather to develop a system in which “AI determines for itself how the greenhouse should be controlled based on real-time environmental and crop data.” Although this technology is still at the research and demonstration stage, it represents the direction in which Dutch agriculture is developing. From digitalization toward intelligence, and from precision agriculture toward ultra-precision agriculture.
Beeld: Frans Lemmens, NL Branding Toolkit
Glass greenhouse cress quality checks
Examples of Dutch smart agriculture
On dairy farms, smart collars are attached to individual cows to monitor their steps, rumination, milk production, and methane emissions. Automated milking robots and other equipment operate around the clock, while milk composition data can be synchronized to mobile devices. AI analyzes this information to optimize feed formulations and feeding schedules to enable precise feeding. At the same time, data on animal welfare and low-carbon emissions is collected and used for traceability in export trade.
An example in open-field farming are the farms widely using drones and remote sensing to monitor crop growth and the occurrence of pests and diseases. Data analysis is used to guide field operations, helping to reduce the use of fertilizers and pesticides.
Intelligent applications across the value chain
A typical example of digitalization across the value chain is the Aalsmeer flower auction market. The world’s largest flower trading center. Flowers are automatically scanned and registered upon arrival, digitally graded according to quality, and traded through real-time data-based auctions. Automated cold chain sorting and distribution systems are also used, allowing fresh flowers to be delivered to destinations around the world within 24 hours.
In recent years, the Netherlands has also seen the emergence of different sales channels. Major supermarkets, large retail chains, wholesalers, flower-shop cooperatives, and other key market participants have increasingly begun to sign supply contracts directly with producers. The digitalization of the entire flower value chain has also made it possible for these participants to bypass the flower auction market and purchase flowers directly.
Beeld: FloraHolland, NL Branding Toolkit
Flower auction in the Netherlands
Collaboration between China and the Netherlands
There is ample opportunity for the Netherlands and China to strengthen collaboration in smart and digital agriculture, learn from each other’s experiences and technologies, and jointly improve agricultural production and trade advancing food security for all.
In smart and digital agriculture integrated systems bring together AI, the Internet of Things, greenhouse technologies, robotics, agricultural models, and data platforms. Data collection is the foundation; AI is the brain; Internet of Things is the nerve of the system; robots are the execution system; and collaboration among researchers, businesses, and farmers provides the organizational foundation that enables the entire system to operate.
The collaboration should also be smart and well thought-through. Dutch companies considering local production in China, either by establishing their own operations or cooperating with Chinese partners, are advised to carefully assess potential economic security risks. Particular attention should be given to the protection of intellectual property rights and trade secrets. As part of their risk assessment, companies should consider potential challenges relating to intellectual property infringement, unauthorized use or reproduction of proprietary technologies, and the protection of technical knowledge and know-how.
Appropriate due diligence, clear contractual arrangements and effective safeguards are important to ensure secure and mutually beneficial business cooperation. The Netherlands Enterprise Agency RVO and the Dutch Embassy or Consulates General in China can provide guidance on identifying and managing these risks.
This makes co-creation central to the partnership. By combining knowledge, experience and local engagement, China and the Netherlands aim to contribute to a more resilient and sustainable global agrifood system advancing food security for all.
Interested in exploring collaboration with Chinese counterparts? Please connect: pek-lvvn@minbuza.nl