Bulgaria: Relief to constrained grain and oilseed supply in hot and dry Europe

Contrary to the historical droughts and heat waves in many parts of Europe, Bulgaria looks not just spared, but blessed with good climate for grain crops – rainy spring and mild summer, leading to historical highs in wheat production and yields, and promising outlook for maize and sunflower. Higher production, along with bottoming-out commodity markets, came at a crucial moment for farmers, following constantly increasing cost pressures and period of persistently low farmgate prices. 

Record wheat crop

With the harvesting season now over, Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture and Food reports record high wheat crop for second year in a row – almost 7,4 million tons. What makes results even more impressive is that the increase came entirely from rise in yields (6,3 t/ha) – 9% jump from 2025 and +12% compared to the 5-year average, while wheat area declined almost 7%. Highlighting not only the good weather, but also the consistent progress Bulgarian grain producers make in improving their productivity, quality and efficiency. Bulgaria recorded the second best yield growth (against 5ya) in EU after Romania.

Favorable conditions for summer crops

With vast parts of Europe facing heavily concerning summer crops yields after historical droughts and heat waves, Bulgaria looks ahead for a good season also in maize and sunflower production. The MARS Bulletin points that near-average seasonal temperatures in July and August, combined with the absence of heat stress, provided adequate thermal conditions for yield formation. Rainfall also remained near normal in July, with even above-average amounts in some areas, which kept soil moisture close to average conditions, providing a satisfactory water supply in most of the country, apart from areas in the Northwest.

In August, crop conditions started to show some deterioration, according to the monitoring, but yields forecasts remained significantly improved. Current expectations for maize are for about 5,5 t/ha, which would be 29% higher than the 5-year average and more than double the yields from 2025 season. This would also make Bulgaria the EU country with highest maize yield growth (against 5ya), while many other members states are likely to register double-digit declines.

Prospects look promising in sunflower production as well, where Bulgaria traditionally plays a major role on the EU market. The expected yields of about 2,3 t/ha would be 13% higher than the 5-year average (biggest jump in EU) and 37% more than the realized in the previous campaign. In the same time, other key market suppliers as France and Hungary are projected to both have 23% decline in sunflower yields.

More information

For more information, you can reach out to the Netherlands Agricultural Network in Bulgaria via: sof-lvvn@minbuza.nl