Pressure rises in the Romanian port of Constanta

Low water levels on the Danube put pressure on Constanța as Ukraine seeks alternative grain routes

Scarce rainfalls and prolonged high temperatures along the entire basin of the Danube river have led to a record-low water level of this river. Besides its key role in the energy systems of Romania and Bulgaria - its waters being used for cooling down the nuclear power plants in Kozluduy (BG) and Cernavoda (RO), the latter being completely shut down at the moment - the Danube is also placing growing pressure on one of Ukraine’s most important alternative export routes: the Romanian port of Constanța. At a time when Russian attacks are restricting operations at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, worsening conditions on the Danube are making it increasingly difficult and expensive to move Ukrainian grain to international markets.

The combination of extreme heat, prolonged drought and rising demand for alternative export routes is creating a logistical bottleneck that could also affect Romanian farmers and exporters in the months ahead.

The Danube is drying up and barges are carrying less

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Constanța has become an important gateway for Ukrainian agricultural exports. Grain reaches the Romanian port by rail, road and, importantly, by barge along the Danube.

However, low water levels are forcing barges to operate below their normal capacity. More vessels and additional trips are therefore required to move the same volume of grain. This increases transport times, creates congestion and pushes freight costs higher.

The effects are already being felt by farmers and traders. Land-based transport is also under pressure, with reports of shortages of trucks and sharply higher transportation costs. For wheat, sunflower seeds and rapeseed moving down the Danube toward Constanța, reduced barge capacity means fewer barge rotations, longer waiting times and freight rates above normal seasonal levels.

In other words, the problem is not simply that the river is becoming more difficult to navigate. Every reduction in the amount of cargo a barge can carry increases the number of journeys needed - and ultimately raises the cost of getting grain to market.

Constanța has capacity - but getting the grain there is the problem

The Port of Constanța itself still has room to handle additional Ukrainian cargo. Viorel Panait, president of the Constanța Port Business Association and managing director of grain terminal operator Comvex, has said that his terminal could handle approximately 20% more wheat under the EU’s “Solidarity Lanes” initiative.

The immediate bottleneck, therefore, is not necessarily the port. It is the logistics network feeding the port.

Low water levels are limiting the amount of cargo that can reach Constanța by river, while increased Ukrainian transit is simultaneously intensifying competition for rail wagons, barges and trucks.

That distinction is important. Even if Constanța can physically handle more grain, insufficient transport capacity upstream can prevent that grain from reaching the port in the first place.

Alternative routes remain far smaller than Ukraine’s Black Sea export capacity

The scale of the challenge becomes clearer when alternative routes are compared with Ukraine’s traditional maritime export infrastructure.

According to Ukrainian estimates, rail and Danube routes combined can handle only around one-third of the capacity available through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. This means that alternative routes can provide an important safety net, but they cannot fully replace the country’s maritime export infrastructure.

As Russian attacks increase the risks surrounding Ukrainian ports, demand for alternative routes is consequently rising at exactly the moment when the Danube is becoming less capable of handling additional cargo.

The resulting competition for barges, rail wagons and trucks is putting upward pressure on logistics costs across the region.

International grain markets are also feeling the pressure

The disruption is not confined to the physical movement of grain. Growing logistical risks in the Black Sea region are also being reflected in international agricultural markets.

Prices on major grain exchanges, including the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and MATIF, have returned to levels last seen around three years ago. Concerns about transport capacity, weather conditions and geopolitical risks can be therefore quickly fed into international prices.

For producers in both Ukraine and Romania, higher logistics costs can reduce margins even when production itself remains strong.

Pressure on Constanța could intensify during the harvest season

The timing is particularly concerning. Romania is heading into a period in which substantial volumes of wheat, barley and rapeseed are moving through the agricultural supply chain, while maize and sunflower harvesting will add further demand for transport and storage capacity.

If Danube water levels fail to recover, the river route could remain constrained just as demand for it reaches another seasonal peak.

This creates a difficult scenario: Ukraine needs alternative export routes because of the continuing risks around its Black Sea ports, while Romania is simultaneously entering one of the busiest periods of the agricultural year.

The result could be further congestion across the Romanian logistics network, higher freight rates and increased competition for scarce transport capacity.

Ukraine looks also at Moldova for alternative routes to Constanța

Against this backdrop, Ukraine is also looking at ways to expand the number of routes available for moving grain to Constanța.

Moldova’s Ministry of Infrastructure and Regional Development has confirmed that authorities in Chișinău are examining a Ukrainian request concerning the transit of Ukrainian grain through Moldova to the Romanian port.

Reuters reported that Ukraine is considering a rail route through Moldova, with Ukrainian authorities seeking a 50% reduction in transport tariffs. The proposal would allow Ukrainian grain to travel by rail through Moldova before reaching Constanța, where it could then be loaded for onward maritime export.

The Moldovan ministry said that any decision would aim to provide economic benefits to both countries.

Intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine have consequences beyond the country’s borders

The escalation of Russian attacks on Ukrainian Danube ports is increasingly affecting its immediate neighbours, Romania and the Republic of Moldova. The ports targeted by the drone attacks are located right on the borders of the two countries, meaning that neighbouring regions are experiencing falling debris and, occasionally, drones entering neighbouring airspace – with implications for the grain shipments transiting the region.

According to officials, the Romanian Ministry of Defence’s radars are detecting an increasing number of drones near the country’s airspace or even entering its airspace, as part of attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Danube. Most are destroyed by Ukrainian air defence while still over Ukrainian territory, but debris from the downed drones or loose drones are subsequently found also along the Romanian Black Sea coast and on the banks of the Danube.

Beyond the possible physical danger, the escalation of attacks near the Romanian border can have also indirect implications for farmers’ and exporters’ finances: the cost of marine insurance and shipping. Insurance and shipping companies can swiftly adjust upwards their tariffs if risk increases due to possible incidents in the vicinity of Constanța – even though the Romanian port is not directly a target.

A growing logistical challenge for the Black Sea region

Constanța has played an important role in keeping Ukrainian agricultural exports moving since the beginning of the full-scale war. But the current situation highlights the limits of relying on alternative corridors when the main export infrastructure is disrupted.

The port itself may still have spare capacity. The bigger challenge is ensuring that sufficient cargo can reach it - by river, rail and road - quickly and economically. In addition, shipping costs can increase if risks increase.

With the Danube suffering from exceptionally low water levels, Russian attacks continuing to threaten Ukrainian maritime infrastructure, and the Romanian harvest season approaching, pressure on the region’s logistics network is likely to remain high.

The coming period will therefore be critical. If water levels recover, some of the pressure on the Danube corridor could ease. If drought conditions persist, however, Constanța and the wider Romanian transport network could face an increasingly difficult balancing act between supporting Ukraine’s export needs and handling Romania’s own agricultural harvest.

More information

For more information, you can reach out to the Netherlands Agricultural Network in Romania via: bkr-lvvn@minbuza.nl