Rising tensions in the Middle East have put pressure on global energy markets, but the impact on fuel prices in Serbia has so far remained relatively limited. Higher fuel and fertiliser costs are still affecting agriculture, however, prompting the Serbian government to maintain support measures for farmers.
Beeld: illustration by D.R.
Since the start of the war involving the United States and Israel against Iran, fuel prices in Serbia have increased, but relatively modestly compared to other countries. Petrol prices rose from around €1.51/liter in February to €1.61/liter at the beginning of April. The Serbian government reduced fuel excise taxes, and without this measure, prices would likely have been 10–20% higher.
For agricultural activities, diesel is more relevant, and a similar trend has been observed. Prices went from about €1.53/liter in February (a fixed subsidized rate) to roughly €1.57/l in April, reflecting a small increase of around € 0,04 per liter. Even before the Iran crisis, farmers had already been protesting high fuel prices and were calling for the reintroduction of so-called “red diesel.”
The Serbian government has implemented several measures, some of which were already in preparation prior to the Iran conflict, partly in response to farmer protests. Between February and April, the following developments were observed:
- €153/ha allocated in the 2026 budget for crop production to help cover input costs such as fertilizers and seeds
- An additional €145/ha provided for certified seeds to offset rising input prices
- Under a government decree (updated in March 2026), registered agricultural holdings can purchase Euro diesel at a fixed price of €1.57/liter at NIS petrol stations, capped at 100 liters per hectare
- Continued exemptions from customs duties (introduced earlier but extended every six months) on imports of nitrogen fertilizers and anhydrous ammonia, ensuring duty-free supply for the spring season
Regarding fertilizers, Serbia remains heavily dependent on imports, particularly for nitrogen and phosphate products. Although the government has worked to maintain stable supply through traditional partners such as Russia and Hungary, global “imported inflation” has still driven domestic prices upward. According to Lidington Research, wholesale prices increased from approximately €400–430 per ton in February to around €450–480 per ton in April. However, retail prices paid by farmers were significantly higher due to VAT, logistics, and margins, rising from roughly €500–530 per ton (≈€0.49–0.53/kg) in February to €600–650 per ton (≈€0.60–0.64/kg) in April. Some retailers also reported temporary shortages and delayed sales during March, which contributed to additional upward pressure on prices during the peak demand period.
Fuel supply (both petrol and diesel) remains stable, and Serbia is no longer dependent on Russian oil due to EU’s 6th sanctions package from June 2022, which contains a complete import ban on all Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products. The main supplies come from Kazakhstan and Iraq. The U.S. administration has been pushing for the complete elimination of Russian influence, including the removal of Gazprom’s 56% ownership in NIS (largest Serbian company for oil exploration, production, refining and distribution). Negotiations on this issue have been ongoing for more than six months. Potential buyer of Gazprom’s share is Hungarian MOL. Serbia’s main supplier of gas is the Russian Federation (88% of the total supply for 2025), and two countries have recently signed new the short-term contract until 30 June 2026.