Serbia and Europe in 2026

2026 grain market: corn hits wheat levels as geopolitics tightens supply

Europe enters 2026 with an unusual twist: corn prices have climbed to wheat levels, while wheat holds above the psychological €191.50/t (Agrarheute). Farmers are increasingly holding back sales because, even after a mild rebound, prices still don’t cover production costs.

In Serbia, the grain market opened 2026 with muted activity but slightly firmer prices after the holidays. Corn averaged €175/t, though trade was thin amid tight supply and cautious buying, with end-2025 deals failing as buyers tried to push bids lower. Wheat accounted for most turnover (85%): trading was initially slowed by a bid-offer gap, then picked up post-holiday, with deals at an average of €171/t. 

Analysts describe 2025 as strong on yields but weak on farm income. French analyst Damien Verkambroj (Inter-Courtage) says low grain prices in Western Europe didn’t cover costs, while UBS notes real grain prices in 2025 were near the lowest levels in 40 years.

Markets are being pushed by global uncertainty: renewed risk in Black Sea grain trade amid escalation in Ukraine (attacks on infrastructure and ships), plus dry weather in the US Midwest and poor rainfall forecasts. Wheat gains are limited by aggressive export competition from Russia and Argentina.

Corn is increasingly central: on Euronext, the March futures contract broke €190/t as EU supply tightens. With Ukraine facing production and logistics constraints, availability to the EU is reduced—making French corn highly sought-after. Intra-EU exports in 2025/26 could reach nearly 4 million tons, a level not seen since 2021/22. As corn converges with wheat, buyers more often switch to feed wheat in rations, reshaping demand.

The state will protect the milk market

Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management Mr. Dragan Glamočić chaired a meeting with representatives of milk producers, the dairy industry, relevant ministries, Serbian Chamber of Commerce and relevant sectoral authorities to address current challenges in the milk market. Participants noted growing milk surpluses in recent months, putting pressure on prices and raw milk collection. The Minister emphasized that the state will take all necessary measures to protect farmers, maintain market stability and ensure the placement of domestic milk and dairy products in line with market rules. As the website of the Ministry reports, Ministry will analyze prices, import volumes, and market trends to prevent unfair competition. If serious disruptions are confirmed, protective measures may be introduced in accordance with international agreements, including anti-dumping measures. Most likely, sessional levies on import of powder milk and hard cheeses will be introduced. The Netherlands Embassy would like to strongly encourage investments with EU funds, IPARD in local dairy producers to improve quality and ensure food safety, making Serbian farmers more competitive and resilient to external market influences.

The Ministry stressed that milk markets across Europe are facing similar pressures and confirmed that the situation will be monitored closely, with continued dialogue aimed at ensuring fair conditions for all actors in the milk production chain. These challenges mirror broader trends in the European Union. According to ABN AMRO (quoted in Nieuwe Oogst), the global dairy market has become unbalanced due to increased production following last year’s high milk prices. This has resulted in surpluses of milk and butter, pushing milk prices below the critical level of €47 per 100 kg since November 2025. The bank expects a recovery in milk prices only in 2026. While 2025 was financially strong for Dutch dairy farmers, average liquidity more than doubling and incomes exceeding long-term averages, ABN AMRO warns that these buffers will be tested in 2026 due to lower milk prices, tax obligations from the profitable year, and higher manure disposal costs stemming from stricter environmental standards.

Freight transporters announce border transport blockade from 26 January

Serbian transport association Pumedtrans together with other Western Balkans transport associations announced that road freight traffic at cargo border crossings toward the Schengen area will be halted from 26 January 2026, citing the lack of progress on resolving the application of the 90/180-day rule (non-EU nationals may stay in the Schengen area for up to 90 days within any rolling 180-day period; longer stays require a long-term visa or residence permit) for professional drivers. According to the association, Schengen states continue to treat drivers’ routine work as “stay in the Schengen area,” exposing drivers and transport companies to sanctions and legal uncertainty.

The protest will include a suspension of freight transport at major and minor border crossings with Schengen countries, through stoppages at cargo terminals and access roads. The only exception is Preševo, on the route toward Greece. 

The action is announced for at least seven days, with a possibility of suspension if firm guarantees are received for a meeting with senior officials of the European Commission involving representatives of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Pumedtrans states the protest has no political character and aims to draw attention to the treatment of professional drivers and the impact on transport and supply chains.

The European Commission said it is closely monitoring the situation and remains in contact with Western Balkan partners, reiterating that Schengen short-stay rules remain unchanged, with existing provisions for flexibility and long-term visas or residence permits where applicable.

Serbia’s raspberry squeeze: yields down, rivals up - export crown slips

Serbia produced 82,577 tons of raspberries in 2025, 35% less than the record 127,010 tons in 2018, according to Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia —making 2025 one of the weaker seasons this century. Higher export prices helped offset lower volumes, but those same prices are stimulating more production elsewhere - especially Ukraine, which has rapidly expanded output and intensified pressure on Serbian exporters.

By export value, Serbia had ranked #1 globally through Q3 2025 for at least 19 consecutive quarters, but in Q3 2025 it fell to #2: Poland €95m, Serbia €92.9m, Ukraine €62.3m. China surged to #4 (€34.8m), pushing Chile to #5 (€30.9m) (via Danas). By export volume, the hit was sharper: in Q3 2025 Serbia dropped to #3, behind Poland 33,000 t, Ukraine 25,400 t, Serbia 19,000 t (ahead of China 13,000 t and Chile 10,300 t).

Price-wise, Serbia gained: the average export price jumped from €3.54/kg (Q2 2025) to €4.88/kg (Q3 2025)—the highest among major producers (Poland €2.87, Ukraine €2.45, China €2.67, Chile €3.00/kg). Meanwhile, Serbia also recorded a record import in Q3 2025: 5,013 tons of frozen raspberries, mostly from Poland (3,063 t), followed by Ukraine (502 t), Moldova (337 t), Belarus (303 t), BiH (217 t) and Albania (86 t)—its largest quarterly import volume to date.

Serbia and China to launch first agriculture & science satellite

Serbia and China are strongly backing the joint launch of their first satellite dedicated to agriculture and scientific research, planned to happen as soon as possible, according to Serbian agriculture minister Dragan Glamočić.

After talks with a delegation from the Harbin Institute of Technology, Glamočić said the satellite should support modern tech use in agriculture, forestry and water management, and improve natural resource management. Reported capabilities include remote sensing, crop monitoring, water and forest resource management, and stronger early-warning systems.

Both sides also signaled readiness to deepen cooperation in agri-tech applications and in the research, innovation and startup/innovation sector, the Ministry of Agriculture in Belgrade stated. Glamočić added Serbia is “sincerely interested” in Chinese technologies and sees major potential where science, innovation and practical application meet.