China's MARA publishes the Report of Global Agricultural Market and Trade 2025

The general economic situation and prediction

•  Economic slowdown weakens trade demand: according to the World Bank, global trade growth is projected to go from 3.4% in 2024 to just 1.8% in 2025—its slowest pace in nearly a decade.
• Geopolitical and U.S. tariff disruptions. 
• Ample crop supplies: the FAO and other agencies forecast rising global output of major crops (excluding sugar) and record harvests of rice, maize, sorghum, and oilseeds. The total grain production in 2025 is expected to reach 2.925 billion tonnes, up by 2.3% year-on-year, with trade volumes climbing to 487 million tonnes, up by 1.2% YoY. The global grain stock-to-use ratio will stand at 30.3%, reflecting a well-supplied market. In 2025, China secured a bumper summer grain harvest of 149.74 million tons, marking the second-largest on record after the previous year. The output of pork, beef, lamb and poultry reached 48.43 million tons, up 2.8% year on year, and milk production stood at 18.64 million tons, a 0.5% increase.
• Mixed price signals: FAO’s Food Price Index climbed modestly in H1 2025—up by 2.6% (3.3 percentage points). However, price performance varied among commodity groups: ailments in grains and sugar prices were offset by bigger increases in dairy, meat, and vegetable oils. Rice, wheat, maize, sugar, and palm oil fell, while prices for soybeans, cotton, soybean and rapeseed oils, pork, beef, lamb, dairy, poultry, and eggs trended upward.
• Stability in China’s agricultural trade as import fell and export increased: in H1 2025, China’s agricultural trade totaled USD 147.84 billion—a 6.5% decline year-on-year. Import fell 10.1% to USD 98.5 billion, while exports rose 1.8% to USD 49.34 billion. The trade deficit narrowed 19.6% to USD 49.16 billion. Notable shifts included a drop in the import of grains (−27.0%), soybean (−3.3%), sugar (−35.5%), beef (−12.4%), and fruits (−9.0%), and hikes in the imports of vegetable oils (+12.0%), pork (+9.6%), lamb (+26.2%), aquatic products (+7.7%), and dairy (+17.9%). Exports of aquatic products (+4.4%), fruit (+17.5%), and tea (+9.1%) rose, whereas vegetable exports declined by 5.8%.

Specific crops

• Soybean: soybean trade this year has remained vigorous globally and in China. The nation’s soybean imports climbed by 1.8% to 49.372 million tonnes in H1, and the high imports are projected to persist due to strong domestic demand.
• Edible vegetable Oils: tight markets persist for palm, soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower oils, with prices elevated and trade down marginally. China’s H1 imports dropped 8.6% to 3.187 million tonnes; full-year imports are forecasted at 7.5-8.0 million tonnes due to domestic market and international price dynamics. With stable domestic production and demand, H2 growth may slow down while full-year imports are expected to grow modestly.
• Beef & Mutton: tightening beef supply, and a fragile demand-supply balance for mutton suggest rising prices globally and slowing trade growth. In 2025, China’s beef imports are expected to decline slightly, while mutton imports will likely rise. 
• Dairy: moderate global oversupply contrasts with steady price rises, while global dairy trade is expected to contract slightly. In 2025, China’s imports are expected to rebound.
• Poultry and eggs: a slight oversupply is predicted to persist in global poultry and egg markets, with poultry prices marginally up and egg prices fluctuating at elevated levels in H1, 2025. For the whole year, China’s chicken imports are expected to see limited growth, while egg and egg product exports will expand.

More information

For more information, you can reach out to the Netherlands Agricultural Network team in China via PEK-LVVN@minbuza.nl.