Hungary: Climate change, agriculture, and the shape of things to come

Water is disappearing at an alarming rate in Hungary, experts warn

The National Water Directorate (OVF) recently published a new study on its website. According to the experts, water levels in Hungary’s rivers have been extremely low, and the typical spring floods failed to materialize.

Hungary just experienced one of the driest winters on record. The country normally experiences two (sometimes three) major flood periods throughout the year: Spring floods from the meltwater as the winter snow and ice coverage melts, and the green floods, which are caused by the heavy rainfall that normally occurs in the late spring and summer. This year however, the spring flood didn’t occur due to the particularly dry winter.

The upper catchment areas of the country’s major rivers have seen dry, precipitation-poor weather. Only 60% of the average winter precipitation fell over the Nagymaros catchment area of the River Danube, and just 52% over the River Tisza’s catchment near Szeged.

In March, the lowest minimum water levels of the past 30 years were recorded. During the low-water period in March, the water level of the River Danube in Budapest dropped to just 87 centimeters on March 12, corresponding to only 6% channel capacity. On the River Tisza, for example at the Szolnok gauge, the reading on March 13 showed a water level of minus 257 centimeters, just 3% of the channel’s capacity

Lake Balaton slowly evaporating in the heat

The warming climate is causing a series of issues for Central Europe’s largest lake. Lake Balaton’s water level is significantly lower than last year. The average water level was 99 cm last weekend, however, by August, this might drop below 70 cm – reported Infostart.hu last weekend.

Throughout the summer, the lake’s water level naturally decreases due to evaporation and the lower amount of rainfall in the summer months. This can be as much as a 20-40 cm drop. However, in comparison to the current water level, which is already at 99 cm in June, in 2023, the water level was still 103 cm on August 15. The shrinking of the lake’s water supply will have serious consequences for the natural environment.

The drought’s effects will be painfully felt across the economy

Agrárszektor.hu reports that farmers must prepare for a water-stressed summer again. Drought is more and more prevalent every year.

Since 1901, 2011 was the driest year in Hungary, with 420 mm of rainfall in total. (In comparison, the annual average is 500-800 mm.) The historic 2022 European drought also hit the country hard, leading to Hungary having to import corn in the first time of living memory. This year the devastation of the 2022 drought might repeat. The dry spell has led to critically low water levels, the portal reports.  

This year’s drought is hitting the country at a time of economic uncertainty. The amount of rainfall over the next two weeks could significantly influence this year’s GDP growth, which has already been surrounded by increasingly subdued expectations in recent months. The nationwide rainfall deficit and prolonged heat are causing particularly severe damage in the Great Hungarian Plain (Alföld), while only 2–3% of agricultural land is regularly irrigated.

Hungary’s historic drought in 2022 affected 85% of the country, covering 78,700 square kilometers. In 2024, drought returned again, impacting 80% of the country, though the damage was somewhat less severe. Meanwhile, the extent of irrigated farmland has barely changed over the past 15 years. According to the portal, only 2–3% of the country's arable land is currently irrigated.

Tamás Petőházi, president of the National Association of Cereal Growers (GOSZ), told the portal that corn has about two weeks left. If there is no meaningful rainfall in that time, it will be severely affected by the drought. For sunflower, that critical window is closer to a week and a half. However, even if the rains arrive in time, Hungary’s corn yield will be 20% lower than it would normally be. Without rains, half of the harvest might be lost.

Prices rose substantially in the wake of the FMD outbreaks

According to Agrárágazat.hu, following the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks, meat prices have undergone an “extreme and lasting” increase. While producer prices for slaughter cattle have risen significantly, foreign trade has been volatile since the outbreak.

In the first four months of the year, cattle slaughter (by live weight) increased by 31%. In the first quarter of 2025, the price per kilogram of young bulls rose to €4.57, while heifers reached €3.18, and cows €3.40. Due to rising prices and export restrictions in the cattle market, live cattle exports fell by 55%, while beef exports increased by 43%.

Due to the outbreak and export restrictions, prices have risen sharply in recent months. The price of young bulls (hot carcass weight) has climbed from around €2/kg this time last year to nearly €6/kg now, while the price of slaughter cows has nearly doubled.

Brown moths swarm over Hungary

Various news sources reported in the past days of large numbers of brown moths appearing in cities all over Hungary. Telex.hu reports that the moths are harmful for agriculture and that they are hard to eradicate. András Benyó, entomologist at the Budapest Zoo told the portal that the silver Y moths (Autographa gamma) are not technically invasive, but are considered a migrating species.

The proliferation of the moths, like many other environmental woes, is tied to the warming climate, since before the onset of climate change, few of the moths could overwinter in Hungary. However, the warmer and drier winters that the country has been experiencing favor the insects. These moths live for a few months, and until now, typically only one or two generations would develop in Hungary each summer. But with the changing climate, more generations may appear during a single summer—two or even three instead of just one or two.

However, all similar species go through what is called a gradation or mass swarming, which means that every few years, their numbers surge dramatically. There was a large outbreak in 2018 as well, and the country likely won’t see such a colossal swarm again for another 5-6 years. In the cities, night lights and flowers attract the moths.

Since the silver Y moth isn’t very picky, it can be found on a wide variety of plants. Its caterpillar often burrows into the fruit of the plant, making it a dangerous pest capable of causing significant damage in agriculture. One effective measure is the use of pheromone traps, which help forecast the arrival of the moths in a plantation and allow for timely preparation for their eradication.