Hungary: The largest lake in Central Europe faces climate-driven collapse

Lake Balaton in grave danger

Lake Balaton’s ecosystems are in grave danger due to the changed climate, warns an article on Hungarian climate portal Másfélfok.hu written by climate scientists of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

Lake Balaton is the largest lake in Central Europe. It is 78 km long, and at its greatest width, 14 km wide, with a surface area of 600 km². Lake Balaton is one of the defining natural landmarks of Western Hungary, and one of the most iconic landmarks of the country. It is also a cardinal part of Hungary’s water systems.

Beyond its scenic beauty, the lake is a haven for wildlife and a vital aquatic habitat. Large parts of the region fall under the protection of the Balaton Uplands National Park. It is also an important cultural area with rich history, and one of the most iconic regions of Hungarian agriculture, as the Balaton region is home to Hungary’s historic Badacsony wine region, which produces world-class quality wine varieties.

This incredibly important natural habitat is now in grave danger. According to Másfélfok, in the past three decades, Lake Balaton has warmed three times faster than it did over the previous 120 years. Heatwaves in the water have become more frequent and intense. But the changed climate brings more than just rising temperatures, as it threatens to disrupt the lake’s seasonal cycle-based ecosystem, it increases the risk of low-oxygen periods and algal blooms, and it also enables the spread of heat-loving invasive plant species. This was confirmed by measurements in the field and satellite data.

As a shallow lake, Balaton is especially vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures are reducing oxygen levels in the water, while warming also accelerates evaporation, upsetting the lake’s natural water balance.

In the 21st century, Balaton has been warming at an average rate of 0.07 °C per year, meaning that by 2025, the lake is on average 1.7 °C warmer than it was in 2000.

Moreover, this warming hasn’t been uniform. If the trend continues, the decline in seasonal temperature variation could disrupt the life cycles of aquatic species, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the lake’s entire ecosystem, the scientists warn. As they put it: “These are not just data points, they are warning signs.”

Another victim of the spring frosts: Sour cherry

The largest domestic fruit and vegetable producer alliance, FruitVeB reports that a weak sour cherry harvest both in Hungary and throughout Europe have put the market in a difficult position.

The first major blow to this year’s harvest came on April 7-8, with a cold snaps during the night that brought down temperatures to -2°C to -8°C.

Harvest data indicates that due to the cumulative impact of spring frosts, Hungary is facing a very poor sour cherry crop this year, currently estimated at around 35 thousand tons (+/- 15%). Early varieties (such as Meteor, Érdi Jubileum, and Érdi Bőtermő) have suffered severe losses, with yield reductions of 80–100%. The weak output of Érdi Bőtermő in particular is already affecting the processing industry, as it means that during the first 7–10 days of the processing season, even lower-than-usual volumes will be available. Significant losses are also reported for the Cigánymeggy variety.

Clustered sour cherry varieties (such as Debreceni Bőtermő, Újfehértói Fürtös, Kántorjánosi, Petri, Éva, and others) are performing somewhat better, but even in this segment, losses are approaching 50%.

The domestic sour cherry growing area covers 12 thousand hectares, 55% of which is mainly located in the North-Eastern part of the country, and nearly a quarter in Pest and Bács-Kiskun counties, FruitVeB reports.

Over the past decade, domestic sour cherry production has typically ranged between 55 thousand and 80 thousand tons, but our production potential has declined in recent years: the area under cultivation has shrunk by about 2 thousand hectares, and the ageing of plantations and the economic failures of recent years have also contributed to the negative trend. FruitVeB concludes that this year’s harvest is expected to be the lowest in history.

Hungarian growers trying to increase share of domestic produce on market

Agrárszektor.hu reported on the situation of Hungary’s vegetable grower sector this week. According to DélKerTÉSZ, one of the country’s horticultural grower alliances, the share of Hungarian produce on the domestic market has not yet returned to its 2019 level. Especially in the case of vegetables, import pressure is high, meaning that a large share of the produce is coming from outside the EU, for example from North Africa. This is despite the fact that, in the grower season, enough is produced domestically to cover the market demand on bell peppers and tomatoes, not to mention that buying domestically has a lower carbon footprint, the portal writes. Agrárszektor.hu also adds that domestic consumers are very price-sensitive, and strict domestic regulations put Hungarian produce at a disadvantage. These trends were discussed at an industrial conference recently.

Ferenc Apáti, head of FruitVeB concurred with DélKerTÉSZ that import pressure is increasing. This year, Hungary is expected to produce 1.6 to 1.8 million tons of vegetables. While the production volume has declined by around 20% in recent years, exports have also decreased, while domestic consumption has seen a slight increase,  leading to a rise in imports. Mr. Apáti emphasized that this trend is expected to intensify this year, especially for fruits, where some varieties have suffered yield losses of up to 90% due to frost damage during the spring cold snaps.

Sándor Nagypéter, head fo DélKerTÉSZ also concurred, and added that while the import pressure is high throughout the whole of the Central and Central-Eastern European region, Hungary also places higher burdens on producers. Vegetables are subject to higher VAT compared to neighboring countries, and significantly higher environmental product fees (EPR) than, for example, in Slovakia. Mr. Apáti added that while the domestic alliances worked hard on trying to lower the VAT of vegetables, this has so far been unsuccessful. While in neigboring countries, the VAT level on vegetables is 5-10%, in Hungary, VAT is the same as for everything else, which is 27%, the highest in the European Union.

Price stability out of reach, says economic research institute

The economic research institute GKI concluded in its latest analysis that “price stability is still out of reach” with the latest projection on the country’s annual inflation at 4.3%. In May 2025, Hungary’s Central Statistical Office (KSH) reported a 4.4% y-o-y rise in the consumer price index, indicating that despite government interventions, inflation is once again on the rise.

While this figure remains within the range forecasted by analysts (including GKI) it significantly exceeds the government's earlier target of 3.2%.

In the case of food prices, multi-year data shows that the first major wave of price increases occurred before January 2023. Between then and September 2024, prices rose by 7.5 percentage points, and then by 7.6 percentage points occurring within just 8 months. Altogether, over a span of nearly 4.5 years, Hungarians ended up paying nearly 77% more for food than in December 2020.

Service prices have increased by 44.6% since 2020. As for household energy, despite the Hungarian government maintaining its consumer subsidy program in part, costs are now 43.6% higher than in December 2020. Other products, fuel, and alcoholic beverages, experienced a similar rate of inflation, ranging between 46.4% and 50.3%.

There are multiple causes for the inflation. Key contributing factors include rising agricultural producer prices, surging energy costs (for instance, Hungarian producers pay roughly 20–30% more for electricity than their counterparts in other EU countries) and increased regulatory fees. The rising cost of packaging materials, further driven by higher environmental product fees (EPR), also plays a role. Rising labor costs and the special retail tax imposed on international chains that dominate food retail in Hungary also factor in.

In addition, storage costs have increased, and due to the weaker euro exchange rate, imported goods have become more expensive as well. These higher costs are increasingly being passed on to consumers, as producers and retailers have less and less room to absorb them.