In May 2025, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published its first comprehensive Economic Survey of Ukraine since 2007. Released during a period of ongoing war and economic hardship, the report offers a timely and data-rich assessment of Ukraine’s economic trajectory, reform agenda, and post-war reconstruction prospects.
The Netherlands has long been a committed partner of Ukraine—in agriculture, trade, governance, and sustainable development. This moment offers a renewed opportunity for deepening bilateral cooperation, particularly as Ukraine accelerates its alignment with EU and OECD standards and rebuilds a resilient, market-driven economy.
Despite Russia’s full-scale invasion and the devastation it has brought—over a quarter of the population displaced, infrastructure damage exceeding 2.5 times GDP, and public debt projected to rise toward 120% of GDP—Ukraine’s economic response has demonstrated adaptability and determination. Effective monetary policy, digital innovation, international support, and strong societal resilience have all helped stabilize the macroeconomic environment.
Yet, immense challenges remain. Labour shortages, institutional fragility, informal economic activity, and energy disruptions continue to constrain recovery. At the same time, the survey highlights areas where targeted reforms, green investment, and international cooperation—particularly with partners like the Netherlands—can catalyse a new phase of sustainable development.
The OECD Economic Survey: Ukraine 2025 offers a comprehensive, evidence-based analysis of Ukraine’s current macroeconomic conditions, structural challenges, and reform priorities. While the ongoing war continues to constrain growth and policy implementation, Ukraine’s commitment to economic modernization and EU convergence is strong. Below are key findings from the report across macroeconomic, labour, fiscal, investment, and environmental domains.
1. Macroeconomic Stability Amid War
Despite the immense shock of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has managed to stabilize its economy:
- Real GDP contracted by 28.8% in 2022 but rebounded with 5.5% growth in 2023 and is projected to grow 2.5% in 2025.
- Inflation, which fell to 3.2% in early 2024, has since risen again to 14.6% (March 2025), driven by supply shocks, labour shortages, and currency depreciation.
- Foreign exchange reserves have reached over USD 40 billion, reflecting prudent monetary management and continued external support.
2. Labour Market: Shortages and Structural Gaps
Labour force constraints are among the most urgent economic challenges:
- Over 5 million workers have been lost from the labour force due to mobilisation and displacement.
- Unemployment peaked near 26% in 2022 and remains elevated at approximately 15%.
- Female labour force participation remains low at 42.9%, though wartime demands have triggered a modest increase.
- Reintegration of 6.9 million externally displaced persons and over 1 million demobilised veterans will be crucial for long-term recovery.
3. Public Finances Under Pressure
War-driven defence spending—approximately 25% of GDP—has created extreme fiscal stress:
- The budget deficit is projected at ~20% of GDP in 2025–2026.
- Public debt is forecast to reach nearly 120% of GDP by 2026, up from 50% in 2021.
- Despite high spending pressures, Ukraine has adopted a medium-term fiscal strategy targeting a gradual reduction in deficit and debt, relying on revenue reform and external concessional financing.
- Tax revenues, at 54.8% of GDP, remain volatile due to informality and compliance issues.
4. Business Environment, Investment and Trade
Ukraine’s private sector will be critical for reconstruction, but key obstacles persist:
- Gross capital formation remains below 15% of GDP—well under the OECD average.
- Foreign direct investment (FDI) reached USD 4.4 billion in 2023, with EU countries contributing 75%.
- SOEs still hold around 15% of business capital stock, often crowding out private competition.
- Regulatory burdens, weak rule of law, and corruption perceptions continue to deter investors.
Yet, the Survey highlights promising reform momentum, particularly in:
- Tax simplification, customs modernization, and digital governance;
- Energy pricing reform and emissions trading system development;
- Judicial transparency and anti-corruption institutions.
5. Green Recovery and Climate Policy
Ukraine’s reconstruction is also a climate opportunity:
- CO₂ emissions per capita (2.7 tonnes) are low, but emissions intensity per GDP remains high.
- The share of renewables in energy supply is only 7.3%, compared to the OECD average of 12.5%.
- War-related destruction of energy infrastructure has accelerated the shift toward decentralized renewable generation, where Dutch expertise can be especially valuable.
- The government plans to expand carbon pricing, review environmentally harmful subsidies, and improve pollution control mechanisms.
Ukraine’s Agricultural Recovery and the Role of the Netherlands
Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Ukraine’s economy, contributing 8.5% of GDP and accounting for nearly half of total merchandise exports—with grains, oilseeds, and processed foods at the forefront. The OECD survey underscores the sector’s strategic significance for both domestic stability and global food security. Yet, the war has inflicted enormous damage: critical infrastructure such as grain silos, irrigation systems, and transport corridors has been destroyed; vast areas of farmland have been mined or rendered inaccessible; and farmers face persistent energy shortages, logistical bottlenecks, and labour disruptions.
Despite these challenges, Ukraine’s agricultural sector has shown remarkable resilience. Production has started to recover, supported by favourable weather and innovative adaptations. But the road to a fully restored and modernised agricultural system—climate-resilient, productive, and competitive—requires long-term partnerships. Here, the Netherlands, as a global leader in sustainable agriculture and agritech, can play a vital and multifaceted role.
Technological Solutions and Innovation
Dutch strengths in precision agriculture - including drones, remote sensing, AI-driven crop management, and soil diagnostics - can help Ukrainian farmers increase yields while reducing resource use. These tools are particularly useful in post-conflict landscapes, where field conditions vary widely and traditional farming practices may no longer be viable.
Dutch water management and irrigation systems are also directly applicable. In drought-prone or flood-affected regions, smart irrigation technologies and water recycling systems can restore functionality and improve climate resilience in Ukrainian farming.
Land Safety and Demining Cooperation
One of the most urgent needs is the safe restoration of farmland contaminated by landmines and unexploded ordnance. Dutch NGOs, private contractors, and innovation hubs with experience in land decontamination can collaborate with Ukrainian authorities and international donors to accelerate the clearance and certification of agricultural land. This will not only support food production but also create employment in rural areas.
Education, Training, and Rural Inclusion
The OECD survey emphasises the importance of labour reintegration—especially for displaced populations, returnees, and demobilised veterans. The Netherlands can offer critical support through vocational training, cooperative models, and women’s empowerment in agriculture. Institutions like Wageningen University & Research can play a leading role in capacity-building, curriculum development, and practical exchanges on topics ranging from regenerative farming to EU-compliant phytosanitary standards.
Green Transition and Climate-Smart Farming
Ukraine’s alignment with EU environmental goals will require significant adaptation in the agricultural sector. Dutch expertise in climate-smart agriculture, carbon certification schemes, and low-emission production systems can help Ukraine meet these targets while maintaining export competitiveness. The Dutch experience with greenhouse horticulture, biodiversity management, and renewable energy in farming provides valuable templates for Ukraine’s own green recovery.
Reconnecting to European Markets
The Netherlands can also support Ukraine in rebuilding agri-food export chains. Dutch companies are global leaders in agrologistics, cold chain management, and food processing. Strategic co-investment in export infrastructure, logistics hubs, and food safety systems can help Ukraine restore access to EU markets and align with regulatory requirements under the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
The OECD Economic Survey: Ukraine 2025 confirms what many in the Netherlands and across Europe have come to recognise: Ukraine is not only resisting, it is reforming. Amid the extraordinary toll of war, Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable institutional and economic resilience. The coming years will define whether this resilience can be transformed into sustained, inclusive growth.
For the Netherlands, this is more than a geopolitical concern—it is a call to purposeful partnership. As Ukraine rebuilds its economy, reforms its institutions, and deepens its alignment with EU standards, Dutch expertise in areas such as:
- sustainable agriculture and food security,
- circular economy and climate policy,
- digital governance and innovation ecosystems,
- public finance and decentralisation,
will be crucial. The Netherlands has a longstanding presence in Ukraine’s agri-food, logistics, and reform sectors. Now is the time to scale that engagement—to move from assistance to co-investment, from technical advice to long-term collaboration.
Several concrete priorities stand out:
- Reconstruction and Green Recovery: Dutch firms and institutions can contribute to energy-efficient rebuilding, decentralised renewables, and sustainable infrastructure.
- Vocational Education and Skills: Dutch-Ukrainian partnerships in training and requalification will be vital for reintegrating displaced people and veterans.
- Trade and Export Development: Ukraine’s agricultural exports and emerging industries need partners with advanced logistics, certification, and innovation capacity - areas where the Netherlands leads.
The OECD report provides a clear message: while uncertainty remains high, especially concerning security and demographics, Ukraine’s reform agenda is advancing. A Europe that includes a strong, democratic Ukraine is not only a matter of values - it is a matter of long-term strategic stability.