Poland, alongside Germany and France, is one of the largest milk producers in the European Union due to the large number of dairy cows.
In mid-2024, as in the entire EU, there was a slight decrease in the number of dairy cows, which deepened towards the end of the year. In December 2024, according to data from the Central Statistical Office, the number of dairy cows in Poland amounted to 1,960 thousand units, which means a 12.6% decrease compared to the previous year.
Higher milk purchase in Poland in the first eleven months of 2024
On the domestic market in January-November 2024, the supply of raw milk for purchase was higher than a year earlier, thanks to the continuing demand from the food processing industry. In total, during this period, the purchase of raw milk in Poland reached 12 billion liters, which is almost a 4% increase compared to the same period in 2023. However, in November 2024 alone, milk deliveries dropped by about 4% compared to October, but it was still almost 3% higher than in November 2023.
Beeld: © @AgaMurawska
Increase in the value of Polish dairy exports in 2024
The Polish dairy sector recorded higher revenues from dairy product exports in the first eleven months of 2024, mainly due to increased demand from EU countries. Preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance indicate that the value of dairy product exports from Poland in this period amounted to about EUR 3.3 billion (PLN 14.2 billion), which is an 8% increase compared to the same period in 2023. At the same time, almost EUR 1.7 billion (PLN 7.3 billion) was spent on the import of dairy products, which means a 7% increase year on year.
The positive balance in foreign trade in dairy products (including casein) in the eleven-month period of 2024 amounted to EUR 1.6 billion (PLN 6.9 billion), which is 8% higher than a year earlier.
Main directions of Polish milk exports - EU dominance
Export to European Union countries generated approximately 70% of revenues from foreign sales of Polish dairy products. Revenues from this source in the eleven-month period of 2024 amounted to EUR 2.3 billion, which is a 13% increase compared to the same period of 2023. The main recipients of dairy products on the EU market were:
- Germany: 20% of export value (EUR 664 million)
- Czech Republic: 8% of export value (EUR 249 million)
- Romania: 5% of export value (EUR 174 million)
- Netherlands: 5% of export value (EUR 150 million)
- Italy: 4% of export value (EUR 143 million)
Export outside the EU - Algeria and Great Britain in the lead
The share of non-EU countries in Polish dairy exports was 30%. Revenues from exports to these markets reached EUR 975 million, which is a 3.5% decrease compared to the period January-November 2023. The largest share in total Polish exports among non-EU countries was held by:
- Algeria: 6% of export value (EUR 187 million)
- Great Britain: 5% of export value (EUR 168 million)
- Ukraine: 3% of export value (EUR 97 million)
- China: 2% of export value (EUR 57 million)
- Saudi Arabia: 2% of export value (EUR 56 million)
Major exported dairy products
In the first eleven months of 2024, the largest export revenues were generated from the sale of:
- Cheese and cottage cheese: EUR 1.1 billion
- Liquid milk and cream: EUR 627 million
- Ice cream: EUR 394 million
- Condensed and powdered milk: EUR 382 million
- Butter and milk fats: EUR 367 million
Beeld: © KOWR
Polish foreign trade of dairy products including casein and ice-cream.
Increase in milk purchase prices in Poland at the end of 2024
Since August 2024, an upward trend in milk purchase prices was observed on the domestic market. According to data from the Central Statistical Office, in November 2024, domestic suppliers received an average of PLN 233.47/hl for the raw material, which means an increase of 6% compared to the previous month and 13% compared to November 2023. However, milk purchase prices were strongly differentiated by region.
Beeld: © Image by congerdesign from Pixabay
A sharp increase and then a decrease in the prices of butter in blocks
On the market of durable dairy products, an upward trend in the prices of butter in blocks continued in the period from February to November 2024. According to data of the Polish Ministry of Agriculture, during this period prices increased on average from PLN 23.35/kg at the beginning of February to PLN 37.44/kg in the last week of November 2024. This was a reflection of increases on the international market due to lower export supply of butter from New Zealand and the EU, as well as the effect of droughts, cattle diseases and higher energy costs.
However, from the beginning of December 2024 to the first week of January 2025, this trend was reversed, and butter prices in blocks fell to PLN 31.35/kg. In the second week of January, the price increased slightly to PLN 32.15/kg. The average butter price level was still 36% higher than a year ago.
Stable skimmed milk powder prices and increase in whole milk powder prices
On the domestic milk powder market, SMP prices in January-May 2024 showed a moderate decline, and then stabilized until December. At the beginning of January 2025, the SMP price increased slightly and was about 2% lower than a year earlier.
Meanwhile, WMP prices from July to November 2024 increased from PLN 15.71/kg to PLN 20.64/kg. In December and early January 2025, WMP prices fluctuated, and in mid-January they were 24% higher than a year earlier.
FAO Dairy Price Index Decrease in December 2024
According to FAO, there was a decrease in the dairy price index in December 2024. This decrease was caused by lower prices of butter, cheese and SMP on the international market due to limited demand. On the other hand, PMP prices increased due to strong demand in Asia and limited stocks in Western Europe. Throughout 2024, the FAO Dairy Price Index was on average 4.8% higher than in 2023.
Source: Biuletyn Informacyjny KOWR