According to data from the Central Statistical Office, the total grain harvest in Poland in the 2024/2025 season (including corn, buckwheat and millet) amounted to 35.0 million tonnes. This is over 2% less than in the previous season, when nearly 35.9 million tonnes were harvested. The harvest of most types of grain was lower than a year ago, with the exception of barley, oats and corn, whose harvests were higher.
Beeld: © A.Murawska
Significant drop in grain exports from Poland in 2024
In the eleven months of 2024, grain exports from Poland decreased significantly. This was due to strong competition on foreign markets, especially from Russia and Ukraine. From January to November 2024, nearly 9.6 million tonnes of cereal grain were exported, which is a 23% decrease compared to the same period in 2023.
The largest share in exports was wheat, with 4.9 million tonnes exported (-26% y/y). A decrease was also recorded in the export of:
- Dry corn: 3 million tonnes (-26%)
- Triticale: 555 thousand tonnes (-18%)
- Barley: 289 thousand tonnes (-37%)
- Oats: 140 thousand tonnes (unchanged)
An increase in exports was recorded only in the case of rye, with 715 thousand tonnes exported (+17%).
Lower transaction prices and a less favorable exchange rate of the złoty against the euro and the dollar translated into a decrease in export revenues. In the eleven months of 2024, revenues from foreign sales of cereal grain amounted to EUR 2.1 billion, which means a 36% decrease compared to 2023.
Main directions of Polish grain exports in 2024
Polish exporters directed their grain mainly to the European Union market in the period January-November 2024 (nearly 5.8 million tonnes, which constituted 60% of all exports). The most important recipients were:
- Germany: 3.6 million tonnes (38% of exports)
- The Netherlands: 710 thousand tonnes (7%)
- Denmark: 315 thousand tonnes (3%)
3.8 million tonnes of grain were exported to third countries (40% of exports), mainly wheat to:
- Nigeria: 838 thousand tonnes (9% of exports)
- Great Britain: 697 thousand tonnes tons (7%)
- Angola: 286 thousand tons (3%)
- Cameroon: 210 thousand tons (2%)
Beeld: © KOWR
Foreign trade in grain in Poland in mln tonnes.
Around 65% of exported wheat went to countries outside the EU, primarily to Nigeria (17%), Angola (6%), Great Britain (5%), Cameroon (4%) and South Africa (4%). Among the EU countries, the largest recipients of wheat were Germany (28%) and Belgium (2%).
Corn exports amounted to almost 3 million tons (-26% y/y), most of which (82%, or 2.4 million tons) went to EU countries, mainly to Germany (43%) and the Netherlands (15%). Non-EU countries purchased a total of 540 thousand tons of corn (18% of exports), with the largest recipients being Great Britain (15%) and Norway (2%).
Germany was also the main recipient of rye (61%) and barley (30%) from Poland. The largest quantities of oats were delivered to Germany (30%) and the Netherlands (24%).
In the whole of 2024, grain exports by sea from Poland amounted to nearly 6.4 million tons, which means a 24% decrease compared to 8.4 million tons exported in 2023.
Beeld: © A.Murawska
Significant decrease in grain imports to Poland in 2024
In the period January-November 2024, grain imports to Poland were significantly lower than in the same period of 2023. 876 thousand tons of grain were imported, which is a 51% decrease year on year. The largest imports were wheat (60%, or 528 thousand tons), followed by corn (19%, 165 thousand tons) and barley (12%, 110 thousand tons). The value of imported grain amounted to EUR 381 million (-33% y/y).
740 thousand tons of grain were imported from EU countries (84% of total import), mainly from Slovakia (35%, including 278 thousand tons of wheat) and the Czech Republic (26%, including 197 thousand tons of wheat).
The positive balance of foreign trade in grain in the period January-November 2024 amounted to 8.7 million tons (-19% y/y), and its value was EUR 1.7 billion (-36% y/y).
Grain prices in Poland in 2024 and early 2025
During the 2024 harvest period, there was a seasonal decline in the prices of rye and corn in Poland, while the prices of other grains showed a slight upward trend. Since autumn 2024, grain prices have maintained a slight upward trend: Compared to December 2023, wheat was 2% cheaper, rye 10% more expensive, and feed barley 3% more expensive.
Beeld: © A.Murawska
Future prospects
The expected reduction in grain exports from Russia and Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025 may revive the European export market. However, the availability of grain on non-European markets may limit grain exports from the EU, including Poland. The uncertain situation on the grain market means that price changes on world exchanges will have a significant impact on the price situation in the country.
Source: Biuletyn Informacyjny KOWR