Every year, 6% of the value of agricultural production in Spain is lost, more than 550 million euros. This is the result of the first major informative study “The countdown is on. Impacts of climate change on Spanish agriculture” carried out by a farmers’ organization.
Pablo Resco, from the farmers' organization COAG, presented the most relevant results of his years of research into the scientific literature on the effects of global warming on Spain’s agriculture. Although regional differences may appear, no area is immune to global warming, so it was important to know to what extent the Spanish agricultural sector could be affected in different scenarios. For this reason, the author analyzed four agricultural systems of great relevance for Spain: olive groves, vineyards, cereals and the dehesa*.
Fig. 1. Evolution of the aridity index with respect to the 1971-2000 base period from pre-industrial levels
At present, agricultural insurance’s claims ratio for extreme weather events can result in a loss of at least 6% of the value of agricultural production each year. Climate change would increase the intensity and frequency of these events. In addition, the decrease in vegetation cover due to rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation, combined with its concentration in the form of heavy rainfall, could increase soil erosion and further increase the risk of desertification.
Main conclusions
- A warming of 1.5°C would result in a significant drop in yields and production quality in the current cultivation areas, but especially in the hotter and drier areas of the south of the peninsula.
- With an increase of 2°C, the damage could be very serious and, for example, endanger the holm oak dehesas in the westernmost part of Andalucía or Extremadura. Yields of cereals such as wheat could drop by more than 15% in some regions. The area of high quality vineyards could be reduced by 20%. And in the case of olive trees, only the picual variety could maintain dryland yields in inland growing areas. However, from a warming of 2.5°C onwards, even the yield of this variety would suffer significantly without water supply. Moreover, holm oak dehesas could disappear in large parts of the southern half of the country.
- The greatest losses would be associated with increased water stress due to increased evapotranspiration, higher temperatures and lower rainfall. This situation would be accompanied by a higher frequency of droughts, up to 5-10 times higher if they exceed 1.5-2°C. In addition, rainfall would be more intense, leading to erosion, and would be concentrated in periods such as autumn, making water less usable for agriculture.