Poland: pork market
According to the April forecast of the United States Department of Agriculture, in 2021, global pork production may be 5% higher than in 2020 and will probably amount to 101.5 million tonnes.
This will be contributed by, inter alia, pig stock recovery in China and Vietnam after the African swine fever crisis. In China, pork production may increase by 11% (to 40.5 million tons), and in Vietnam - by 5% (to 2.6 million tons). The improving global economic situation and the possibility of further export expansion will also support production growth in Brazil - by 3% (to 4.3 million tons) and Russia - by 2.5% (to 3.7 million tons). In the USA, however, the production volume will remain at the level from 2020 and may reach 12.8 million tonnes.
The increase in the EU-27 pig population in December 2020 (by 2.2%), and especially piglets (by 5.9%) results in increased slaughter of pigs in early 2021. In January-February 2021 industrial slaughter of pigs in the EU increased by 1.5% in relation to the corresponding period of 2020 and amounted to 3,966,000 tonnes. Among the largest EU pork producers, increases in slaughter were recorded in Denmark (by 16%), Poland (by 5.5%) and Spain (by 1%). In Germany, slaughter was reduced by 4% and in France - by 3%. According to the short-term forecast of March 2021, corrected by the European Commission, pork production in the EU-27 throughout 2021 may be 0.7% higher than in 2020 and reach 23.4 million tonnes.
Production in Poland
In Poland, in December 2020, the pig population amounted to 11.7 million units, 4.6% more than in December 2019. The increase took place in all production and utility groups. The herd of rearing pigs weighing 50 kg and more increased by 7.6% (including sows - by 7.7%, and pregnant sows - by 5.2%), pigs for slaughter (fattening pigs) - by 5, 4% of piglets - by 3.9%, and weaners - by 3.1%. In Poland, according to preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office, in the first quarter of 2021, the slaughter of industrial pigs (in live weight) amounted to 690 thousand tonnes and was 8% higher than last year. In 2021, the development of domestic pig production will depend, inter alia, on the epidemic situation in Poland and Europe, the extent of ASF virus spread and the profitability of livestock production, which is determined by the relationship between the purchase price of pigs and the price of rye or barley, as well as the ratio of the purchase price of one piglet to the price of one fattening pig. In the first quarter of 2021, as a result of the increase in the prices of live pigs, the profitability of rearing improved compared to January 2021. The increase in the number of pigs will result in an increase in the production of live pigs in the first half of 2021. However, the level of production in the second half of the year will be influenced by the price situation on the feed market and the demand for pork.
ASF in Germany
Despite the detection of ASF outbreaks in pigs in the EU's largest pork exporter, Germany, resulting in immediate import restrictions from major partners (China, South Korea and Japan), EU exports to third countries remain high. The inability to export pork from Germany to the Asian market was used by other Member States, mainly Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands.
In the period January-March 2021, 1,602,000 tonnes of pork products (in carcass equivalent) were exported from the EU-27 to third countries, by 30% more than last year. As in the previous years, the largest volume of this assortment (955 thousand tonnes) was directed to the Chinese market. Pork products were also exported to the Philippines (96 thousand tonnes), Japan (78 thousand tonnes), Hong Kong (75 thousand tonnes) and South Korea (52 thousand tonnes). In the first three months of 2021, Member States (EU-27) imported 11.3 thousand tonnes of pork products (in carcass equivalent), by 11% more than last year. Pork was imported to the EU mainly from Switzerland and Norway.
In the first quarter of 2021, Poland was the sixth exporter of pork products outside the EU customs territory in terms of volume. A large part (about 60%) of the pork assortment was sold to European Union countries. In the first three months of 2021, 174,000 tonnes of meat processed pork and livestock fats (in carcass equivalent) were exported from Poland, 4% more than in the same period of 2020. Revenues obtained from foreign sales of pork assortment amounted to nearly EUR 375 million (PLN 1.7 billion), by 11% less than a year ago, due to significantly lower transaction prices of pork in relation to the first quarter of 2020. In the assortment structure of pork products exports from Poland, a traditionally significant share (59%) was fresh and frozen meat. In the period January-March 2021, 104,000 tonnes of pork (in product weight), were exported, mainly to the EU countries (63% of the volume). The largest EU recipients were: Slovakia (9 thousand tonnes, 9% share), Germany and Italy (7.5 thousand tonnes and 7% each) and the Czech Republic (7 thousand tonnes, 7%). Outside the EU, most pork was sold to Vietnam (8,000 tons, 8% of the share), Great Britain (6,000 tons, 5%), the USA (5,000 tons, 5%) and Hong Kong (4,000 tons, 4%). In the period of January-March 2021, 231 thousand tonnes of livestock, meat, fats and pork products (in carcass equivalent), by 1% more than in the previous year, and the expenditure incurred on the purchase of this assortment was 32% lower and amounted to EUR 419 million (PLN 1.9 billion). In the first quarter of 2021, 1.7 million pigs were imported to Poland, 1% more than in the previous year. Piglets and weaners prevailed in pig imports (1.6 million). In the first quarter of 2021, both on the EU internal market and in Poland, the purchase prices of pigs showed a dynamic increase. However, in April, there was a slight decrease in the domestic market. According to GUS data, in April Polish suppliers obtained an average of PLN 5.29 / kg for pigs, 1% less than in March 2021 and 13% less than a year ago. In May 2021, prices increased again.
Source: Biuletyn Informacyjny KOWR
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