Russian Ministry of Agriculture assessed pace of recovery of meat production
An unfavorable epizootic situation and problems with the import of hatching eggs led to a decrease in volumes. Pork production is expected to recover from outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) in several regions in the first half of 2022. This forecast was voiced by the Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev during a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and the government.
Difficult situation in meat and poultry sector
At the beginning of this year, there was a difficult situation in the poultry industry: the number of livestock decreased due to an unfavorable epizootic situation and problems with the import of hatching eggs. According to Patrushev, the agricultural department expects to reach the indicators of 2020 for the production of poultry meat by the end of this year. For beef, the Ministry of Agriculture predicts an increase in production by about 1.5% by the end of this year, follows from the transcript on the Kremlin's website.
Tariff preference for imports as a solution
“At the same time, to support the processing industry and stabilize prices for the meat group, the Ministry of Agriculture proposed to establish a tariff preference for imports of frozen pork in the amount of up to 100 thousand tons and frozen beef - up to 200 thousand tons, - said Patrushev. This decision was considered and supported by the subcommittee on customs tariff and non-tariff regulation. The Ministry of Economic Development has sent proposals to include this issue in the agenda of the next meeting of the Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission.
Opinions of the industry representatives
Konstantin Korneev, executive director of Rincon Management, says that the plans to restore production announced by the Minister of Agriculture correspond to the real situation. “But these forecasts are made taking into account the improvement of the epizootic situation, and only in this case they will come true,” he commented to Agroinvestor. According to him, there are no other significant factors that could radically change the situation and prevent the restoration of production volumes.
A source of Agroinvestor from the poultry industry, who asked for anonymity, doubts the announced forecasts of a recovery in poultry meat production. According to him, one should expect a decrease of 1.5% compared to last year. This follows from the dynamics of poultry meat production and the growing problems with the provision of feed components, without which the productivity of herds may decline, he says.
Estimations of Poultry Union
According to Rosptitsesoyuz (Union of poultry producers) data, which were announced at the webinar on November 10, in January-September of this year, the production of poultry meat in slaughter weight amounted to 3.6 million tons, which is 1.7% less than in the same period of 2020, pork - 3 million tons (minus 0.1%), beef - 1 million tons (plus 1.5%), total meat - 7.7 million tons, which is 0.6% less than in 2020. The union estimates that the production decline seen in the first quarter of this year has been restored to 2020 levels in the second and third quarters. In the fourth quarter, production will also correspond to the level of 2020, according to Rospitsesoyuz.